This is highly unlikely. However, if we try to figure out what would happen if California did leave the United States, we would learn a lot of interesting things about the current state of the country.
American public opinion has become increasingly divided in recent years. According to the Pew Research Center, the average Republican is more conservative than 97% of Democrats, while the average Democrat is more liberal than 95% of Republicans.
In 1994, these figures were 64% and 70%, respectively. According to some scholars, ideological tensions have never been so high in our memory.
“We would have to go back to the distant past, say, the 1890s, to the period immediately after the Civil War, if we wanted to find something similar to today’s sharply polarized society,” says Bernard Grofman, a political scientist at the University of California, Irvine. “The division in Congress has reached a level we haven’t seen in over 100 years.”
California is no exception. Over the past few years, disagreements both within the state and between California and the rest of the US have spawned at least six initiatives aimed at dividing California into smaller states or even seceding from the United States.
According to Monica Toft, professor of international politics at Tufts University (Boston), among the arguments in favor of one plan or another were the following: the conviction that the federal government no longer represents California’s economic interests; that the state is so large that it can only be governed properly by dividing it into smaller parts; and that the contradictions between California and the rest of the country are irreconcilable.
Political turmoil and a blow to the economy
Democrats’ fears may become reality following California’s secession. It is the most populous state, and its departure would radically change the country’s political landscape. There would be a serious shift in power toward complete Republican control of Congress.
In addition, the loss of California voters would virtually deprive America of any hope for a Democratic president, at least in the foreseeable future.
“Politically, the Democrats will find themselves in a deep, deep hole,” says Saydeman. “Since the early 1990s, they have always relied on California during presidential elections.” .
Democrats in the US will likely have to shift their policies slightly to the right. “If you no longer have California to hold down the Democratic Party’s position, it will seriously shift the political center of gravity,” Groffman says.
The best outcome for Democrats in America without California, he continues, would be a more centrist political arena — roughly what it was during the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961), when bipartisan consensus made it possible to tackle major challenges, such as building a highway system that connected the country.
Along with California, the states will also lose its economy, including $266 billion in annual revenue from Apple alone.
But whatever the upheavals in the US political system, let us emphasize: the loss of California will also deal a powerful blow to the economy of the state that has lost one state.
California’s economy is the fifth largest in the world. In 2017, it generated $2.7 trillion in revenue, more than the entire UK economy.
In addition, it contributes more to the federal tax coffers than any other state, offsetting the expenses and losses of the “Republican” states, O’Leary notes.
The extent of the damage to the US economy will depend on whether the leaders of the two countries — the old US and the new California — agree on free trade or erect tariff barriers. In any case, the United States will not escape unscathed.
“The dollar will collapse,” says O’Leary. “The euro and the Chinese yuan will replace it as the world currency.”
A divided United States will lose weight on the international stage and become more dependent on its allies. Old “special relationships” (such as with the United Kingdom) will be tested by the new reality.
Relations with Canada (which tend to improve when leaders from the same political spectrum are in power in both countries) will deteriorate. The same will happen with Mexico, as the ruling US government will take a hard line on immigrants.
On the other hand, California could become an attractive ally for liberal countries.
“Suddenly, instead of a bipolar US-China system, we will see a multipolar world (US, China, California, India, and so on),” notes Saydeman. “In international relations, multipolar systems significantly complicate matters, as all kinds of alliances begin to play an important role.”
California would likely play a leading role in addressing global warming issues.
California would begin to compete for leadership in solving many of the world community’s problems and would certainly play a leading role in issues such as global warming.
However, its progress would be hampered by US practices, including the weakening of regulations limiting harmful emissions and environmental pollution, according to Saydeman.
